Nigeria inflation monitor: July 2026

Headline inflation eased to 15.43% year on year in July 2026, from 15.91% in June. Food inflation stood at 20.31% year on year, below 26.20% a year earlier, but accelerated sharply to 5.56% month on month from 3.75% in June.

At a glance

• Headline inflation: 15.43% year on year (15.91% in June)
• Food inflation: 20.31% year on year (26.20% in July 2025)
• Food inflation: 5.56% month on month (3.75% in June)
• Core inflation: 0.15% month on month (1.66% in June)

DSU view: constructive

The annual disinflation trend remains intact, supported by a very soft core monthly print. The main near-term risk is food inflation. The July print supports the broader disinflation story, but the sharp rise in food prices means the outlook is constructive rather than an all-clear signal.

What this means for investors

• Fixed income, positive: falling inflation improves prospective real returns while nominal yields remain elevated.
• Consumer and FMCG, cautious: higher food prices may pressure household purchasing power, sales volumes and margins.
• FX and the import channel, relatively positive: imported food inflation (13.24%) remains below domestic food inflation (20.31%), suggesting lower import-cost pressure.
• Monetary policy, watch: further easing in inflation strengthens the case for policy normalisation, but food momentum remains important.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); DSU Research analysis.

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